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The college football world was wishing for a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the 4 first-round matchups underwhelmed, offering lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went an ideal 4-0 versus the spread, including three fairly non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public don't seem to think so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
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Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a particularly popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in regards to overall dollars since Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 chances? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the greatest underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most love from sharp gamblers. The Athletic spoke with numerous bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely reputable gamer."
Even though respected cash has actually been available in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely need the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public wagerers are overdoing Texas.
"We would love to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee included.
While the Texas video game will be substantial for the books, it isn't the only game in the area. We chatted with to break down where the sports betting action is on the other 3 College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This game opened Penn State -10.5 at many sportsbooks and has approached a little to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is relatively split at most sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is currently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line approaches a bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State money."
Ohio State got the Oregon 2nd opportunity it wanted. Are the Buckeyes ready for vengeance?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most surprising to the public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog against No. 8 Ohio State. These teams satisfied back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home dog.
So why is OSU preferred?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke with before the CFP very first round had Ohio State atop their power ratings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee also formed his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending upon the sportsbook) in this game before respected cash pressed it to the present line of -2.5. A somewhat greater bulk of wagers at several sportsbooks, approximately 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while close to 60% of the money has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number today. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest move of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over up until now.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had seen significant buyback at the present line of Ohio State -2.5 and that 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred flipped in this video game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point favorite and is presently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
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What caused the line turn? Simply put, the wagering action.
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Despite the fact that Georgia's beginning QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, gamblers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular versus the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at several sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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